4.01. Explaining turnover: A survival model based o expectations.

Autores: M. Valle Barra

ABSTRACT
In this study, the authors propose a explanatory model of voluntary turnover based on two constructs: one derived from the psychological concept of expectancy (Bandura, 1978, 1996) that we called hopes to meet expectations, and the other derived from job expectations theory (Porter & Steers, 1973, Taris et al., 2006) that we called met expectations. We proved empirically that these two construct are explained differently following their theories. It was able to develop a survival model that explains the process of voluntary desertion in the early stages of newly hired employees based on job expectations gaps.

This model has been tested in a outbound call center characterized by having high turnover rates. The results suggest that using a Gompertz distribution and the perceived met expectations of individuals after a period of work experience, satisfactorily explain the turnover process. The model also reveals some antecedents of signal theory, in which some characteristics of the individuals are strong signal of performance, but these signals become weaker as the job tenure increases. Implications and discussion of these results are below. For its simplicity, this model can be implemented as an employees control tool and selection.

Key words: job turnover, job survival, expectations.